South and North Korea Tensions Continue Towards War

Although South and North Korea signed an armistice agreement on the 27th of July, 1953, the Korean War has never officially ended, and it does not look like ending any time soon, as tensions continue to build up between the two neighbouring countries.  It is something that is absolutely terrifying, and could culminate in international forces once again fighting on Korean soil, and ultimately the loss of more lives.

Of course, for many years, there was little interaction between the two countries, as they did not communicate with each other.  However, in recent years, this has dramatically changed, with the opening of the joint industrial complex at Kaesong in the demilitarised zone in North Korea.  South Korean companies have built their factories there, and in the process have employed North Korean to assemble the products.  South Koreans also work in the complex.  It was seen as the "symbol of potential inter-Korean harmony."  Unfortunately though, the sinking of a South Korean navel ship earlier this year has seen this hope disappear.  Especially considering that the North threatened to cut all communication with the South if they sought revenge for the sinking of the Cheonan.  The North Koreans deny they were involved. According to Mike Shuster, a reporter from National Public Radio in the United States, "there is no new construction underway, and the factories are far from full capacity."  To make matters worse, "the North Koreans have withheld much of the manpower required to operate the factories."  At the same time, some South Koreans have been instructed to leave the complex, which has culminated in a diminished workload.  As a result, there is every chance the complex could close.  The full story can be listened to here http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127552892 

The South Koreans do not want to walk away from the complex, as to them, it is their best chance of reunification.  However, on the other side of the border, the North Korean government does not believe this.  Rather, they believe that the Americans do not want this to happen, and they are dominating the South by keeping an army of 40,000 soldiers in the region.  It is also their belief that "every year with the support of the South Korean Army they display big military manoeuvres like the 'Ulji Focus Lens' or 'Team Spirit with the purpose of invading and dominating the North.  Only when the American soldiers will leave South Korea and the citizens will recover they sovereignty, a big united Korean nation is possible."  http://www.korea-dpr.com/reunification.htm.  Is the information on their website an example of North Korean Propaganda?  Perhaps.

The Kaesong Industrial Complex is just one issue of concern though, and as such, it is hard to argue for the North Koreans on the situation.  All we have to do is look at the recent events between the two nations from last year to now.  The first of these comes from the 31st of January 2009, when The Independent Reporter, Johnathon Thatcher reported that "North Korea was scrapping all accords with South Korea, a move the South's prime minister said could be timed to coincide with Barack Obama taking office in the US."  The area according to Thatcher was on the brink of war for months, after the conservative government in Seoul stopped providing aid to them.

On the 24th of June, 2009, North Korea threatened to "wipe out the US once and for all" after a pledge by the US to provide nuclear defence to South Korea.  They believed it "justified them having atomic bombs."   After the summit between Barack Obama and Lee Myung-Bak, "The allies issued a joint statement committing the U.S. to defend the South with nuclear weapons."  There is also the fact that North Korea had a nuclear test on the 25th of May, 2009.  A test that caused an earthquake of 4.5 in Kilju County in the countries north east, and was felt as far away as the Chinese border city of Yanji, some 130 miles away. 

At this stage, the Russians were preparing for war, with their far eastern regions bordering North Korea.  The North Koreans claimed that they no longer had to abide by the armistice agreement signed in 1953.

Tensions have also continued into this year, with the North shelling the island of Yeonpyeong in the Yellow Sea.  It culminated in the death of two marines and two civilians, while 13 others were injured, and dozens of houses were damaged.  The South Koreans retaliated.  "The firing came after Kim Jong-un, the little-known youngest son of leader Kim Jong-il, was officially recognised as No 2 in North Korea’s political system, clouding outsiders’ view of its military and nuclear intentions."  A worrying sign for the future of Korea.

North Korea recently boasted about its nuclear prowess.  They said "many thousands of centrifuges are operating at a new uranium enrichment plant which it claims is for peaceful purposes."  A lie?  Very possibly.

According to AFP, “China is ready to abandon North Korea and would accept unification of the peninsular.”  Chinese Communist Party Leaders “no longer regard North Korea as a useful or reliable ally."  This revelation comes from leaked US documents from WikiLeaks, published in the Guardian on the 29^th of November.  It is also believed that North Korea will collapse after the death of Kim Jong-il. 

So, with tensions continuing to escalate between the two countries, and with a battle lasting for more than three days in the Yellow Sea, which involved, "11 ships, air power and 7300 personnel" (American and South Korean), and North Korea threatening to launch second and third strikes, will war once again break out?  Or, will China somehow convince the North Koreans to change their behaviour and return to peace talks, which will see the end of their nuclear programme?  Perhaps it will, but only time can answer these questions.

In addition, North Korea has more than one million soldiers at its disposal, plus a small number of nuclear weapons, and “thousands of artillery guns capable of raining destruction on the National Capital Area, centred on Seoul, which has a population of more than 24 million.”  Of course, it is possible for the North Korean leaders to be rational and believe that deterrence will work, which is what is believed at the moment, as the United States has sent an aircraft carrier into the Yellow Sea without a response from North Korea.  It is still possible for the second theory, which is that the North Koreans are off in their own little world, and believe they are the only ones who are willing to fight a war.  The United States with all its might has the ability to destroy North Korea, according to Paul Dibb, emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University.  It is also possible that the North Koreans will fire on Seoul and destroy their economy. 

North Korea is definitely a threat to the world.  And, nobody really knows what’s going to happen.  For now, the advent of a full scale war does not seem to be on the agenda, but as we all know, it is possible that this will change.  It is the last thing we need, especially considering we are already fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Thus, let us hope that peace somehow wins out and Korea is once again unified.

References: Websites:
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/may/26/world/la-fg-koreas-20100526 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127552892   
http://www.korea-dpr.com/reunification.htm.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/31/north-korea-we-are-on-bri_n_162796.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/24/north-korea-threatens-to-_3_n_220001.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/25/north-korea-hiroshima-nuclear-test
http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-39913120090527
http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-shells-south-20101123-185eg.html
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/north-korea-boasts-of-nuclear-prowess-20101130-18esu.html
http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-ready-to-abandon-north-korea-leak-20101130-18egr.html
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/north-korea-needs-to-fear-us-reprisal/story-e6frg6so-1225966012996